CMIC

Source: APCC Cocommunity Newsletter

The production of copra meal was 1.01 million MT in the first half of 2010. This was significantly up by 20.1% over the corresponding production in the previous year at 0.84 million MT. Higher copra crushing, especially in Indonesia and the Philippines in 2010 also increased the production of the meal. The forecast figure for 2010 is estimated at 1.98 million MT as against 1.84 million MT in 2009 or up by 7.6%. The estimated copra to be crushed in both countries for 2010 is about 3.81 MT as opposed to 3.51 MT in 2009, or an increase  by 8.5%.

A high production of copra meal this year will bring up its volume to the world market. The world export of copra meal in the period January – June 2010 reached 552,000 MT as opposed to last year’s volume at 311,000 MT or an increase by 77.5%. The UCAP statistics indicated that the Philippines has a substantial increase in the export volume in the copra meal to a level of  230,700 Mt in January – June 2010 as against 162,407 MT in last year or an increase by 68,293 MT (42,1%).The estimated production of copra meal for the Philippines in 2010 is 789,000 MT. In the last five years, the domestic consumption of copra meal in the country was around 266,000 MT per annum or about  37,2% of the total production. There is a declining trend of the domestic consumption over time, especially when the meal price in the world market is high. The trend was decreasing at 8,2% per year. In the mean time, the domestic consumption of palm kernel meal imported from Malaysia or Indonesia grew at a rate of 24.0% every year. It is estimated that about 60,000 MT of palm kernel meal is imported in 2010.

The Philippines exported its copra meal mostly to the Asian market, especially to South Korea and Vietnam with a market share of about 148,000 MT and 51,000 MT, respectively during the period of January – June 2010. The market trend for both countries is increasing at an average of 6.6% per annum. Other market destinations of copra meal from the Philippines include Japan, China, Taiwan and Australia with a total import demand of 33,100 MT in the said period.

Indonesia has the second largest copra meal production in the world after the Philippines. It is expected to also have higher production and export performance this year. In the first half of 2010, the total production of copra meal expanded slightly by one percent to reach 257,000 MT from 254,000 MT last year. The export volume increased to 24,880 MT during the first quarter in 2010 from 18,834 MT a year ago. The Philippines and Indonesia hold the biggest share of export for this commodity at about 93.1% of the world export volume.

About 62.3% of Indonesian exports of copra meal go mainly to South Korea and China with a market share of about 19,103 MT in the first quarter of 2010.Other importing countries were India, the Netherlands, Japan, Taiwan, UK, Australia and Singapore. Indonesian domestic uses much higher that hat sold to overseas markets. The estimated domestic use is around 250,000 MT in 2010. The domestic consumption of copra meal is also increasing at a rate of 13,75% per annum with an average of 245,000 MT per annum.

The total domestic consumption of copra meal for the two main producing countries (the Philippines and Indonesia) averaged 511,000 MT per annum. This is about 25.8% of the total meal production in 2010.

The share of copra meal in the overall consumption of oil meals in 2010 is relatively small at only 0.7%. Soybean meal had the highest demand within the group of oil meals consumed with the market share of 60%. Its total consumption was 162.5 m MT in 2010. The consumption of palm kernel meal (PKO-meal) expanded faster than copra in the world market. The consumption was 6.4 m MT for 2010 or about 3.2 folds of copra meal consumption.

The European market is no longer the major buyer of copra meal. Its market share has been significantly reduced to 24,000 MT in 2010. The countries had imported about 141,300 MT in 2004. During the last five years, this region (EU market) had a declining trend at 21.0% per annum. The market share of this region in 2010 is 2.5% of total import.

Australia has shown the same trend of its import demand behavior like the European market. The Australian import demand had a negative growth rate (99.2% per annum) for the last five years. The country’s import demand for 2010 is estimated at 15,000 MT which is about 17.6% lower than the average import in the last five years. Meanwhile, the import demand for palm kernel meal is increasing significantly at 122% per year during the last five-year period.

Chinese import figure for copra meal have also fluctuated much. They ranged from 600 MT and 17,900 MT a year. In 2009, the import demand was 4,000 MT as against last year’s figure (2008) of 3,250 MT or up by 23.1 %. A new record of copra meal import by this country occurred in the first quarter of 2010 to reach 123,800 MT compared to only 1,100 MT in the same period last year. The Philippines supplied about 78% (95,800 MT) of the import demand, and Indonesia contributed amounted to 28,000 MT (23%). The country also showed an increasing trend of importing PKO-meal from the world market. As of April 2010, about 237,000 MT of the meal was imported from Indonesia (27%) and Malaysia (73%). The import volume was significantly up by more than 4 folds (472%) over the last year’s figure at 50,300 MT.

In the mean time, India also indicates a growing trend on its PKO-meal import. As of March 2010, about 4,400 MT of the meal was imported from Indonesia. This volume was up significantly from last year’s figure at only 521 MT. Last year, the total import demand of PKO-meal by this country from Indonesia was 5,140 MT. In the period of January – April 2010, Japan had a lower import demand of copra meal. Its import volume was down to 5,000 MT from 5,700 MT a year earlier. But, their import demand for PKO-meal was significantly up to 20,700 MT from 9,600 MT last year or a decrease by 115.6%. In the last five-year period, Japan consumed domestically 17,780 MT of copra meal and about 34,300 MT of PKO-meal.

The Rotterdam market is still inactive and no price quotation for copra meal is available for this month as a reference. However, the export price of copra meal from the Philippines and Indonesia could be used as the reference since the two countries hold the biggest share of export in the world market.

In January – June 2010, the average price of copra meal was US$ 104 per MT in the domestic market of the Philippines, which ranged between US$ 97 and US$ 120. The price faced a leveling off trend at 0.5%. The average Indonesian price for the same period ranged between US$ 80 and US$ 110 per MT, in the domestic market.